Countries with Declining Population 2025

The headline ranking

By 2025, the global demographic map contains a small but significant cluster of nations where the number of deaths and emigrants consistently exceeds births and immigrants. The data for 2025 ranks these territories by their annual rate of natural decrease and net migration loss. At the top of this list, Kosovo records a population decline of -6.9969 percent, the steepest negative growth rate measured in the current year. Close behind, Ukraine follows with a decline of -5.1324 percent, a figure driven by war-related displacement and a persistently low birth rate. The third position belongs to St. Martin (French part), which shows a contraction of -3.6827 percent, reflecting the economic and demographic pressures on small island territories. The Marshall Islands, at -3.3787 percent, and Moldova, at -3.1825 percent, complete the top five. Further down the ranking, the Northern Mariana Islands record -2.3413 percent, and American Samoa posts -2.0346 percent. These seven territories form the core of the 2025 declining population cohort. The rates are not uniform; the gap between Kosovo and American Samoa is nearly five percentage points, indicating that the drivers of decline vary in intensity. Some nations experience collapse from conflict, others from chronic emigration, and still others from a combination of low fertility and high out-migration. The ranking provides a snapshot of demographic stress in the current year, with each figure representing a real loss of human capital and economic potential.

What binds the leaders

Despite their geographic and cultural differences, the top-ranked declining nations share several structural commonalities. First, each territory experiences a total fertility rate well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. In Ukraine, the fertility rate has hovered near 1.2 for several years, a figure that, combined with war casualties and refugee outflows, produces the -5.1324 percent decline. Kosovo, despite a historically younger population, now sees fertility dropping below 1.8, while emigration to Western Europe accelerates the net loss. Second, all seven territories are net exporters of people. The Marshall Islands, at -3.3787 percent, loses citizens to the United States under the Compact of Free Association, while Moldova sees a steady stream of workers moving to Romania, Italy, and Russia. Third, economic stagnation or contraction is a universal factor. St. Martin (French part), with its -3.6827 percent decline, suffers from a tourism-dependent economy that cannot retain young families. The Northern Mariana Islands, at -2.3413 percent, and American Samoa, at -2.0346 percent, face similar challenges: limited industrial bases, high unemployment, and a reliance on external subsidies. Fourth, political instability or conflict exacerbates the trend. Ukraine's war is the most obvious example, but Kosovo's unresolved status and Moldova's frozen conflict with Transnistria also push people to seek stability elsewhere. Finally, all seven territories have aging populations, meaning that even if fertility were to rise, the demographic momentum would take decades to reverse. These five common threads explain why the leaders cluster together in the 2025 ranking.

Why the bottom lags

The territories at the bottom of the 2025 ranking, while still experiencing negative growth, show less severe rates than the leaders. American Samoa, at -2.0346 percent, and the Northern Mariana Islands, at -2.3413 percent, are the least affected among the seven. The primary reason for their relatively milder decline is the presence of higher fertility rates compared to the top-ranked nations. American Samoa maintains a total fertility rate of approximately 2.3, slightly above replacement, which partially offsets emigration. The Northern Mariana Islands, with a fertility rate near 2.0, also benefit from a younger population structure. However, both territories suffer from high out-migration to the United States, where better economic opportunities and educational access draw residents away. Another factor is the smaller absolute population size. With fewer than 60,000 residents each, even modest emigration flows produce noticeable percentage declines. In contrast, Ukraine, with a population of over 35 million, loses people in the millions to achieve its -5.1324 percent rate. The bottom-ranked territories also lack the acute conflict drivers that push Ukraine and Kosovo to the top. Instead, their decline is chronic and structural, driven by decades of economic dependency and geographic isolation. St. Martin (French part), at -3.6827 percent, sits between the extremes, its decline accelerated by the 2017 hurricane season and subsequent property market collapse. The Marshall Islands, at -3.3787 percent, similarly suffers from climate change threats that make long-term residence less attractive. Thus, the bottom of the ranking represents a slower bleed, not a sudden hemorrhage, but the cumulative effect over decades remains substantial.

Movers worth watching

Several territories in the 2025 ranking exhibit trends that could shift their positions in the near future. Kosovo, with the steepest decline at -6.9969 percent, is a critical case. The rate is heavily influenced by a post-pandemic surge in emigration, particularly to Germany and Switzerland. If Kosovo's economy improves or if European Union visa liberalization leads to return migration, the decline could moderate. However, current projections suggest the rate may worsen before it improves, as the working-age population continues to shrink. Ukraine is another mover to watch. The -5.1324 percent figure reflects wartime conditions that may change if the conflict ends. A post-war reconstruction boom could attract return migrants, but the demographic damage from casualties, displacement, and low fertility will likely keep Ukraine in negative territory for at least a decade. The Marshall Islands, at -3.3787 percent, is a unique case because of its compact with the United States. Any change in migration policy or climate adaptation funding could dramatically alter the outflow. St. Martin (French part), at -3.6827 percent, is vulnerable to natural disasters; another major hurricane could push the rate toward -5 percent. Moldova, at -3.1825 percent, has seen a slight slowdown in emigration since 2023, but the rate remains high. The Northern Mariana Islands, at -2.3413 percent, and American Samoa, at -2.0346 percent, are relatively stable but could see acceleration if U.S. federal support declines. Each of these territories represents a potential inflection point, where policy changes or external shocks could either slow or accelerate the decline.

Structural drivers

The structural drivers behind the 2025 declining population figures are rooted in three interconnected systems: demographic, economic, and geopolitical. Demographically, all seven territories have fertility rates below replacement, with the lowest in Ukraine and Kosovo. This is compounded by aging populations; the median age in Ukraine is 41 years, in Moldova 38 years, and in St. Martin (French part) 40 years. An older population means more deaths than births, a phenomenon known as natural decrease. In Ukraine, the natural decrease alone accounts for roughly half of the -5.1324 percent decline, with net migration accounting for the rest. Economically, the territories suffer from a lack of diversified industries. The Marshall Islands, at -3.3787 percent, relies on fishing licenses and U.S. aid; the Northern Mariana Islands, at -2.3413 percent, depends on tourism and garment manufacturing; American Samoa, at -2.0346 percent, is anchored by a single tuna cannery. When these sectors contract, young workers leave. Geopolitically, conflict and political uncertainty drive emigration. Ukraine's war is the most extreme example, but Kosovo's contested status and Moldova's proximity to the Transnistria conflict also create instability. Climate change adds a fourth driver for island territories: rising sea levels threaten the Marshall Islands and St. Martin, making long-term residence less viable. These structural drivers are not easily reversed. Even if fertility were to rise tomorrow, the population would continue to decline for decades due to the age structure. The 2025 rates are thus the visible tip of a much deeper demographic iceberg.

Outlook

The outlook for the seven territories in the 2025 ranking is one of continued contraction, though the pace may vary. For Ukraine, the -5.1324 percent rate is likely to persist as long as the war continues. Post-conflict, a return of some refugees could reduce the decline to perhaps -2 percent, but the pre-war fertility rate of 1.2 means natural decrease will remain severe. Kosovo, at -6.9969 percent, faces a similar trajectory: emigration will slow only if economic opportunities improve dramatically, which is unlikely in the short term. The Marshall Islands, at -3.3787 percent, and St. Martin (French part), at -3.6827 percent, are at the mercy of climate change and global economic trends. If sea levels rise faster than adaptation measures, the decline could accelerate beyond -5 percent. Moldova, at -3.1825 percent, has a slightly brighter outlook due to its proximity to the European Union and potential for integration, but the demographic momentum is deeply negative. The Northern Mariana Islands, at -2.3413 percent, and American Samoa, at -2.0346 percent, are the most stable, but even they face gradual erosion. Globally, these territories are outliers; most nations still grow, albeit slowly. However, their experience foreshadows challenges that other countries may face as fertility falls worldwide. The 2025 data serves as a warning: once a population enters a sustained decline, reversing the trend requires not just policy changes but a fundamental restructuring of economic and social systems. For now, the outlook is for a continued, quiet contraction.