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Export Boom Cycle

Current account surplus with strong export growth (>15% YoY), reserve accumulation, and moderate GDP growth. Typical of commodity exporters during price surges.

4 occurrences detected, 2 successful

Micronesia, Federated States of 2021

Reserves YoY

+10.1%

GDP growth

3.1%

C/A balance

2.3%

24 mo later

0.5%

Micronesia, Federated States of 2019

Reserves YoY

+95.1%

GDP growth

4.1%

C/A balance

16.1%

24 mo later

3.1%

Micronesia, Federated States of 2017

Reserves YoY

+29.8%

GDP growth

2.2%

C/A balance

10.4%

24 mo later

4.1%

Micronesia, Federated States of 2015

Reserves YoY

+18.4%

GDP growth

4.4%

C/A balance

4.5%

Micronesia, Federated States of Orthodox Tightening Cycle Currency Crisis Pattern Fiscal Dominance Trap Stagflation Risk Insights