Home → Patterns → Orthodox Tightening Cycle → Argentina

Orthodox Tightening Cycle

Inflation above 40%, lending rate above 30%, rate-inflation gap narrowing, reserves stable or rising. Signals credible monetary tightening.

5 occurrences detected, 0 successful

Argentina 2024

Inflation

219.9%

Rate

61.7%

Gap

-158.2pp

Reserves YoY

+28.1%

Argentina 2022

Inflation

72.4%

Rate

52.4%

Gap

-20.0pp

Reserves YoY

+13.0%

24 mo later

219.9%

Argentina 2021

Inflation

48.4%

Rate

35.6%

Gap

-12.9pp

Reserves YoY

+0.6%

24 mo later

133.5%

Argentina 2018

Inflation

34.3%

Rate

48.5%

Gap

+14.2pp

Reserves YoY

+19.7%

24 mo later

42.0%

Argentina 2017

Inflation

25.7%

Rate

26.6%

Gap

+0.9pp

Reserves YoY

+44.0%

24 mo later

53.5%

Argentina Currency Crisis Pattern Fiscal Dominance Trap Export Boom Cycle Stagflation Risk Insights