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Orthodox Tightening Cycle

Inflation above 40%, lending rate above 30%, rate-inflation gap narrowing, reserves stable or rising. Signals credible monetary tightening.
3 occurrences detected, 2 successful
Gambia, The 2023
Inflation
17.0%
Rate
20.8%
Gap
+3.8pp
Reserves YoY
+1.5%
Gambia, The 1987
Inflation
23.5%
Rate
27.9%
Gap
+4.4pp
Reserves YoY
+89.9%
24 mo later
8.3%
Gambia, The 1986
Inflation
56.6%
Rate
28.0%
Gap
-28.6pp
Reserves YoY
+682.2%
24 mo later
11.7%
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Gambia, The Currency Crisis Pattern Fiscal Dominance Trap Export Boom Cycle Stagflation Risk Insights
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