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Export Boom Cycle

Current account surplus with strong export growth (>15% YoY), reserve accumulation, and moderate GDP growth. Typical of commodity exporters during price surges.

3 occurrences detected, 2 successful

South Africa 1994

Reserves YoY

+14.4%

GDP growth

3.2%

C/A balance

0.0%

24 mo later

4.3%

South Africa 1987

Reserves YoY

+53.6%

GDP growth

2.1%

C/A balance

5.3%

24 mo later

2.4%

South Africa 1980

Reserves YoY

+41.6%

GDP growth

6.6%

C/A balance

3.5%

24 mo later

-0.4%

South Africa Orthodox Tightening Cycle Currency Crisis Pattern Fiscal Dominance Trap Stagflation Risk Insights