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South Africa
South Africa
HistorySaid - pattern
South Africa matched the Export Boom Cycle pattern in 1994. 19 pattern matches detected historically. View →
Economy & Growth
GDP $426.4B
GDP per Capita $6,667
GDP Growth 1.15%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture Value Added | 2.54% | 2.81% | 2.76% | 2.76% Trend | 2.81% Trend | 2.87% Trend | - | - | - |
| GDP | $381.4B | $401.1B | $426.4B | $426.4B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $443.6B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $458.4B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $475.5B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $493.3B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $512.0B IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP Deflator | 4.72% | 3.92% | 3.75% | 3.75% Trend | 3.28% Trend | 2.82% Trend | - | - | - |
| GDP Growth | 0.81% | 0.53% | 1.15% | 1.15% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 1.15% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 1.51% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 1.70% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 1.84% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 1.84% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP PPP | $960.8B | $989.3B | $1.03T | $1.03T IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.06T IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.09T IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.13T IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.17T IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.21T IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP per Capita | $6,034 | $6,267 | $6,667 | $6,667 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $6,835 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $6,959 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $7,112 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $7,270 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $7,434 IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP per Capita PPP | $15,200 | $15,456 | $16,050 | $16,050 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $16,283 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $16,559 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $16,863 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $17,216 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $17,598 IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GNI | $376.3B | $393.3B | $408.4B | $408.4B Trend | $417.1B Trend | $425.7B Trend | - | - | - |
| GNI per Capita | $6,490 | $6,110 | $6,435 | $6,435 Trend | $6,488 Trend | $6,541 Trend | - | - | - |
| Gross Savings | 14.72% | 13.58% | 12.25% | 12.25% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.21% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.08% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.12% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.18% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.34% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Industry Value Added | 24.56% | 24.31% | 24.90% | 24.90% Trend | 25.06% Trend | 25.22% Trend | - | - | - |
| Services Value Added | 62.72% | 62.99% | 62.09% | 62.09% Trend | 61.76% Trend | 61.44% Trend | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Prices & Inflation
Inflation Rate 3.36%
Consumer Price Index 214.12
PPP Conversion Factor 7.42
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index | 194.90 | 203.40 | 214.12 | 214.12 Trend | 224.31 Trend | 234.50 Trend | - | - | - |
| Inflation Rate | 6.08% | 4.36% | 3.36% | 3.36% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.66% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.23% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| PPP Conversion Factor | 7.32 | 7.43 | 7.42 | 7.42 Trend | 7.45 Trend | 7.48 Trend | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Population
Population 64.9M
Population Growth 1.14%
Population Density 53.6
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birth Rate | 18.8 | - | 18.4 | 18.4 Trend | 18.1 Trend | - | - |
| Death Rate | 9.2 | - | 10.1 | 10.1 Trend | 10.1 Trend | - | - |
| Dependency Ratio | 48.37 | 48.31 | 47.85 | 47.85 Trend | 47.56 Trend | 47.27 Trend | - |
| Fertility Rate | 2.22 | - | 2.19 | 2.19 Trend | 2.18 Trend | - | - |
| Life Expectancy | 66.1 | - | 65.1 | 65.1 Trend | 65.2 Trend | - | - |
| Net Migration | 228,222 | 166,972 | 146,370 | - | 39,600 Trend | -29,407 Trend | -98,413 Trend |
| Population | 63.2M | 64.0M | 64.9M | 64.9M Trend | 65.8M Trend | 66.6M Trend | - |
| Population Density | 52.1 | - | 53.6 | 53.6 Trend | 54.4 Trend | - | - |
| Population Growth | 1.33% | 1.25% | 1.14% | 1.14% Trend | 1.05% Trend | 0.95% Trend | - |
| Refugee Population | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Urban Population | 63.58% | 63.69% | 63.72% | 63.72% Trend | 63.78% Trend | 63.85% Trend | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Employment
Unemployment Rate 32.39%
Youth Unemployment 59.93%
Labor Force Participation 55.58%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture Employment | 5.50% | 5.44% | 5.41% | - | 5.31% Trend | 5.25% Trend | 5.18% Trend | - | - |
| Female Labor Participation | 49.05% | 49.80% | 49.88% | - | 51.74% Trend | 52.90% Trend | 54.06% Trend | - | - |
| Industry Employment | 20.58% | 20.81% | 20.76% | - | 20.76% Trend | 20.76% Trend | 20.75% Trend | - | - |
| Labor Force Participation | 55.02% | 55.57% | 55.58% | - | 57.10% Trend | 58.02% Trend | 58.93% Trend | - | - |
| Services Employment | 73.93% | 73.75% | 73.83% | - | 73.93% Trend | 74.00% Trend | 74.07% Trend | - | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 32.10% | 32.28% | 32.39% | 32.71% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 32.68% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 32.60% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 32.53% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 32.44% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 32.19% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Youth Unemployment | 60.26% | 60.25% | 59.93% | - | 57.77% Trend | 56.52% Trend | 55.28% Trend | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Government
Tax Revenue 26.63%
Government Spending 34.31%
Military Spending 0.63%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Deficit | -5.55% | -5.79% | -5.99% | -5.99% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -5.65% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -5.33% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -5.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -4.78% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -4.68% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Government Debt to GDP | 73.22% | 75.97% | 77.34% | 77.34% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 79.55% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 81.92% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 83.92% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 85.52% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 87.10% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Government Revenue | 26.91% | 27.19% | 27.65% | 27.65% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 27.45% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 27.61% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 27.59% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 27.64% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 27.65% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Government Spending | - | - | 34.31% | 34.31% Trend | - | - | - | - | - |
| Health Spending | 8.91% | - | 9.14% | 9.14% Trend | 9.24% Trend | - | - | - | - |
| Military Spending | 0.75% | 0.70% | 0.63% | 0.63% Trend | 0.58% Trend | 0.52% Trend | - | - | - |
| Tax Revenue | 25.40% | - | 26.63% | 26.63% Trend | 27.01% Trend | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Debt
External Debt $170.9B
External Debt to GNI 41.35%
Short-term Debt 28.43%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt Service | 16.50% | 16.30% | 12.24% | 12.24% Trend | 9.82% Trend | 7.41% Trend |
| Domestic Credit | 119.04% | - | 99.31% | 99.31% Trend | 91.86% Trend | - |
| External Debt | $165.8B | $175.9B | $170.9B | $170.9B Trend | $170.6B Trend | $170.3B Trend |
| External Debt to GNI | 44.16% | 44.83% | 41.35% | 41.35% Trend | 40.07% Trend | 38.79% Trend |
| Interest Payments to Revenue | 17.29% | - | 18.85% | 18.85% Trend | 19.72% Trend | - |
| Short-term Debt | 25.46% | 26.62% | 28.43% | 28.43% Trend | 29.93% Trend | 31.44% Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Money
Lending Rate 13.02%
Deposit Rate 8.34%
Real Interest Rate 8.91%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit to GDP | 90.37% | - | 71.83% | 71.83% Trend | 64.72% Trend | - |
| Deposit Rate | 6.65% | 7.92% | 8.34% | 8.34% Trend | 9.23% Trend | 10.12% Trend |
| Lending Rate | 11.50% | 11.63% | 13.02% | 13.02% Trend | 14.25% Trend | 15.48% Trend |
| M2 Money Supply Growth | 7.59% | 6.71% | 6.55% | 6.55% Trend | 6.19% Trend | 5.84% Trend |
| Non-Performing Loans | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Real Interest Rate | 6.47% | 7.42% | 8.91% | 8.91% Trend | 10.54% Trend | 12.17% Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Currency
Exchange Rate 19.10
Real Effective Exchange Rate 112.14
Foreign Reserves $67.9B
▾
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 18.33 | 19.10 | - | 19.10 Trend | 19.84 Trend | 20.58 Trend | - | - |
| Foreign Reserves | $65.4B | $67.9B | - | $67.9B Trend | $70.5B Trend | $73.1B Trend | - | - |
| Real Effective Exchange Rate | 72.60 | 104.00 | 112.14 | - | - | 118.80 Trend | 129.41 Trend | 140.03 Trend |
| Reserves in Months of Imports | 5.7 | 4.8 | - | 4.8 Trend | 4.5 Trend | 4.2 Trend | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Trade
Exports $142.2B
Imports $141.2B
Trade Balance $983.3M
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance | -1.10% | -0.64% | -0.90% | -0.90% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -1.21% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -1.57% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -1.77% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -1.93% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -1.94% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Exports | $126.8B | $127.7B | $142.2B | $142.2B Trend | $148.4B Trend | $154.7B Trend | - | - | - |
| FDI Inflows | 1.01% | 0.58% | 0.08% | 0.08% Trend | -0.85% Trend | -1.79% Trend | - | - | - |
| FDI Outflows | -0.73% | -0.32% | -0.28% | -0.28% Trend | -0.30% Trend | -0.32% Trend | - | - | - |
| Imports | $123.7B | $119.9B | $141.2B | $141.2B Trend | $151.3B Trend | $161.3B Trend | - | - | - |
| Remittances Received | $803.4M | $855.4M | $843.5M | $843.5M Trend | $840.1M Trend | $836.7M Trend | - | - | - |
| Tourism Receipts | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Trade Balance | $3.2B | $7.8B | $983.3M | $983.3M Trend | $-2.7B Trend | $-6.4B Trend | - | - | - |
| Trade Openness | 65.68% | 61.65% | 69.23% | 69.23% Trend | 72.36% Trend | 75.48% Trend | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Financial Markets
Market Capitalization 236.87%
Stock Turnover Ratio 21.85%
Listed Companies 205
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rate Spread | 4.85% | 3.71% | 4.68% | 4.68% Trend | 5.02% Trend | 5.35% Trend |
| Listed Companies | 224 | 220 | 205 | 205 Trend | 193 Trend | 181 Trend |
| Market Capitalization | 268.93% | 245.72% | 236.87% | 236.87% Trend | 223.47% Trend | 210.07% Trend |
| Stock Turnover Ratio | 25.88% | 25.78% | 21.85% | 21.85% Trend | 19.60% Trend | 17.34% Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Political Stability
Political Stability -1.00
Government Effectiveness -0.42
Regulatory Quality -0.36
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control of Corruption | -0.33 | -0.28 | -0.46 | -0.46 Trend | -0.54 Trend |
| Government Effectiveness | -0.11 | -0.26 | -0.42 | -0.42 Trend | -0.52 Trend |
| Political Stability | -0.68 | -0.67 | -1.00 | -1.00 Trend | -1.12 Trend |
| Regulatory Quality | -0.19 | -0.22 | -0.36 | -0.36 Trend | -0.43 Trend |
| Rule of Law | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.29 | 0.29 Trend | 0.37 Trend |
| Voice and Accountability | 0.72 | 0.74 | 0.81 | 0.81 Trend | 0.83 Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Health
Health Expenditure per Capita $573
Infant Mortality Rate 23.7
Maternal Mortality Ratio 138.60
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Expenditure per Capita | $570 | $537 | $573 | $573 Trend | $580 Trend |
| Hospital Beds | - | - | - | - | - |
| Infant Mortality Rate | 24.5 | 24.4 | 23.7 | 23.7 Trend | 23.4 Trend |
| Maternal Mortality Ratio | 129.00 | 118.00 | 138.60 | 138.60 Trend | 139.50 Trend |
| Physicians | 0.79 | - | 0.81 | 0.81 Trend | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Education
Literacy Rate 90.57%
Tertiary Enrollment 24.33%
Education Spending 5.99%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Spending | 6.12% | 6.02% | 5.99% | 5.99% Trend | 5.91% Trend | 5.84% Trend |
| Literacy Rate | - | 91.15% | 90.57% | 90.57% Trend | 90.26% Trend | 89.94% Trend |
| Primary Completion Rate | 95.33% | - | 98.30% | 98.30% Trend | 99.21% Trend | - |
| Primary Enrollment | 101.77% | - | 102.63% | 102.63% Trend | 102.87% Trend | - |
| Secondary Enrollment | 104.13% | - | 105.17% | 105.17% Trend | 105.34% Trend | - |
| Tertiary Enrollment | 23.49% | - | 24.33% | 24.33% Trend | 24.69% Trend | - |
| Youth Literacy Rate | - | 97.17% | 96.84% | 96.84% Trend | 96.72% Trend | 96.59% Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Energy
Renewable Energy 9.70%
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO2 Emissions | - | - | - | - | - |
| CO2 per Capita | - | - | - | - | - |
| Electricity Access | 86.50% | 87.70% | 88.46% | 88.46% Trend | 88.65% Trend |
| Energy Use per Capita | 1,938 | 1,939 | 1,780 | 1,780 Trend | 1,711 Trend |
| Forest Area | 14.00% | 13.97% | 13.91% | 13.91% Trend | 13.88% Trend |
| Renewable Energy | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Technology
Internet Users 79.69%
Mobile Subscriptions 171.24
R&D Spending 0.56%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-tech Exports | 4.96% | 5.71% | 5.34% | 5.34% Trend | 5.30% Trend | 5.26% Trend |
| Internet Users | 75.66% | - | 79.69% | 79.69% Trend | 81.21% Trend | - |
| Mobile Subscriptions | 171.51 | - | 171.24 | 171.24 Trend | 173.22 Trend | - |
| Patent Applications | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| R&D Spending | - | - | 0.56% | 0.56% Trend | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Inequality
Gini Index 63.0
Poverty Rate 31.20%
Income Share Top 10% 50.50%
▾
| Indicator | 2008 | 2010 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gini Index | 63.0 | 63.4 | 63.0 |
| Income Share Bottom 10% | 1.00% | 0.90% | 0.90% |
| Income Share Top 10% | 51.30% | 51.30% | 50.50% |
| Poverty Rate | 30.30% | 29.50% | 31.20% |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Data & analysis
Real GDP growth (%)
| 2023 | 0.70 |
| 2024 | 0.58 |
| 2025 | 0.98 |
| 2026 | 1.29 |
| 2027 | 1.64 |
| 2028 | 1.71 |
| 2029 | 1.80 |
| 2030 | 1.81 |
CPI inflation (%)
| 2023 | 5.90 |
| 2024 | 4.43 |
| 2025 | 3.79 |
| 2026 | 4.53 |
| 2027 | 4.50 |
| 2028 | 4.50 |
| 2029 | 4.50 |
| 2030 | 4.50 |
Unemployment rate (%)
| 2023 | 33.10 |
| 2024 | 32.80 |
| 2025 | 32.78 |
| 2026 | 32.68 |
| 2027 | 32.44 |
| 2028 | 32.12 |
| 2029 | 31.81 |
| 2030 | 31.41 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook via DBnomics
From 2023 to 2030, South Africa’s economy exhibits a slow, grinding recovery rather than a decisive boom. Real GDP growth, which registered just 0.70 percent in 2023, is projected to rise modestly to 1.81 percent by 2030, indicating persistent structural weakness rather than a robust expansion. Inflation, after peaking at 5.90 percent in 2023, is expected to moderate to 4.50 percent by 2028 and stabilize at that level, suggesting the central bank has contained price pressures without triggering deflation. The unemployment rate remains chronically high, declining only from 33.10 percent in 2023 to 31.41 percent by 2030, a marginal improvement that underscores deep labor market dysfunction. Historically, South Africa ranked first globally in gross savings from 1960 to 1963, a period of capital accumulation that contrasts sharply with today’s low-investment, high-unemployment equilibrium. The macro story is one of stabilization after a post-pandemic slowdown, but without a shift toward higher productivity, investment, or structural reform, the projected growth path will remain insufficient to meaningfully reduce unemployment or raise living standards.