Home → Patterns → Orthodox Tightening Cycle → Egypt, Arab Republic of

Orthodox Tightening Cycle

Inflation above 40%, lending rate above 30%, rate-inflation gap narrowing, reserves stable or rising. Signals credible monetary tightening.

9 occurrences detected, 2 successful

Egypt, Arab Republic of 2024

Inflation

28.3%

Rate

24.3%

Gap

-4.0pp

Reserves YoY

+35.8%

Egypt, Arab Republic of 2023

Inflation

33.9%

Rate

17.8%

Gap

-16.1pp

Reserves YoY

+2.9%

Egypt, Arab Republic of 2017

Inflation

29.5%

Rate

18.2%

Gap

-11.3pp

Reserves YoY

+54.0%

24 mo later

9.2%

Egypt, Arab Republic of 1995

Inflation

15.7%

Rate

16.5%

Gap

+0.7pp

Reserves YoY

+18.8%

24 mo later

4.6%

Egypt, Arab Republic of 1991

Inflation

19.7%

Rate

19.8%

Gap

+0.1pp

Reserves YoY

+70.9%

24 mo later

12.1%

Egypt, Arab Republic of 1990

Inflation

16.8%

Rate

19.0%

Gap

+2.2pp

Reserves YoY

+45.1%

24 mo later

13.6%

Egypt, Arab Republic of 1989

Inflation

21.3%

Rate

18.3%

Gap

-2.9pp

Reserves YoY

+10.4%

24 mo later

19.7%

Egypt, Arab Republic of 1987

Inflation

19.7%

Rate

16.3%

Gap

-3.4pp

Reserves YoY

+43.6%

24 mo later

21.3%

Egypt, Arab Republic of 1986

Inflation

23.9%

Rate

15.0%

Gap

-8.9pp

Reserves YoY

+12.1%

24 mo later

17.7%

Egypt, Arab Republic of Currency Crisis Pattern Fiscal Dominance Trap Export Boom Cycle Stagflation Risk Insights