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Stagflation Risk

GDP growth below 2% combined with inflation above 8% and rising unemployment. The worst macro combination for policymakers.

10 occurrences detected, 2 successful

Iran, Islamic Republic of 2019

Inflation

39.9%

GDP growth

-2.4%

Unemployment

10.7%

24 mo later

43.4%

Iran, Islamic Republic of 2018

Inflation

18.0%

GDP growth

-3.7%

Unemployment

12.2%

24 mo later

30.6%

Iran, Islamic Republic of 2015

Inflation

12.5%

GDP growth

-1.4%

Unemployment

11.2%

24 mo later

8.0%

Iran, Islamic Republic of 2013

Inflation

36.6%

GDP growth

-1.5%

Unemployment

10.6%

24 mo later

12.5%

Iran, Islamic Republic of 2012

Inflation

27.3%

GDP growth

-3.7%

Unemployment

12.3%

24 mo later

16.6%

Iran, Islamic Republic of 2009

Inflation

13.6%

GDP growth

1.0%

Unemployment

12.1%

24 mo later

26.3%

Iran, Islamic Republic of 2008

Inflation

25.4%

GDP growth

0.3%

Unemployment

10.6%

24 mo later

10.1%

Iran, Islamic Republic of 1997

Inflation

17.3%

GDP growth

1.4%

Unemployment

9.7%

24 mo later

20.1%

Iran, Islamic Republic of 1994

Inflation

31.4%

GDP growth

-1.7%

Unemployment

10.5%

24 mo later

28.9%

Iran, Islamic Republic of 1993

Inflation

21.2%

GDP growth

-1.5%

Unemployment

10.6%

24 mo later

49.7%

Iran, Islamic Republic of Orthodox Tightening Cycle Currency Crisis Pattern Fiscal Dominance Trap Export Boom Cycle Insights