China Real Interest Rate
Real interest rate FR.INR.RINR
China's real interest rate was 5.48% in 2025, ranked 36th globally. This represents a 7.6% increase from 2024. Data from World Bank, covering 1980–2025.
Overview
China's real interest rate stood at 5.48% in 2025, a rise of +0.39pp from 2024. Based on recent trends, this figure is projected to reach 5.48% by 2025. China ranked 36th globally.
China’s real interest rate has risen to 5.48% in 2025, placing it 36th in the world and marginally above peers such as Grenada (5.49%) and Indonesia (5.45%). The indicator has traversed a 46‑year span from a low of 1.23% in 1980 to an all‑time peak of 7.38% in 1982, when the country began liberalising its financial sector, before plunging to a historic trough of –8.01% in 1994 amid a severe banking crisis and aggressive monetary easing. The post‑1990s rebound reflects tighter monetary policy and the gradual deepening of capital markets, while the recent climb aligns with the People’s Bank of China’s effort to normalise policy after years of ultra‑low rates. If inflation pressures persist and the government continues to prioritise financial stability, the real rate is likely to remain in the mid‑single digits, but a shift toward a more accommodative stance could again depress the metric.
Data & projection
| Year | Real Interest Rate | YoY change | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2027* trend | 7.00% | - | - |
| 2026* trend | 6.24% | - | - |
| 2025* trend | 5.48% | - | - |
| 2025 | 5.48% | +0.39pp | #36 |
| 2024 | 5.09% | +0.21pp | #34 |
| 2023 | 4.88% | +2.51pp | #54 |
| 2022 | 2.37% | +2.49pp | #64 |
| 2021 | -0.12% | −3.92pp | #38 |
| 2020 | 3.80% | +0.80pp | #36 |
| 2019 | 3.00% | +2.14pp | #25 |
| 2018 | 0.85% | +0.66pp | #21 |
| 2017 | 0.20% | −2.63pp | #20 |
| 2016 | 2.83% | −1.38pp | #28 |
| 2015 | 4.21% | −0.25pp | #48 |
| 2014 | 4.46% | +0.84pp | #43 |
| 2013 | 3.62% | +0.11pp | #37 |
| 2012 | 3.51% | +4.86pp | #48 |
| 2011 | -1.35% | −0.30pp | #28 |
Detected Pattern
Analysis
China matched the Export Boom Cycle pattern in 2013. Historically, 71% of countries showing this pattern (546 out of 768) saw real interest rate improve within 24 months. View full analysis →
Frequently Asked Questions
China's real interest rate was 5.48% in 2025. Ranked 36th globally. This represents a 7.6% increase from the previous year.
China's real interest rate peaked at 7.38% in 1982.
The lowest real interest rate in China was -8.01% in 1994.
China ranks 36th globally in real interest rate as of 2025.
The World Bank indicator code is FR.INR.RINR. Data sourced from World Bank.
China's real interest rate is projected to reach 5.48% by 2025 based on trend extrapolation.
The real interest rate of China in 2025 was 5.48%. This ranks 36th in the world.
Cite this page
@misc{historysaid_china_real-interest-rate,
title = {China Real Interest Rate},
url = {https://historysaid.com/china/real-interest-rate/},
publisher = {HistorySaid},
year = {2026}
}