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Bosnia and Herzegovina
Bosnia and Herzegovina
HistorySaid - pattern
Bosnia and Herzegovina matched the Fiscal Dominance Trap pattern in 2022. 1 pattern matches detected historically. View →
Economy & Growth
GDP $33.2B
GDP per Capita $9,648
GDP Growth 2.40%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture Value Added | 4.65% | 4.53% | 4.05% | 4.05% Trend | 3.74% Trend | 3.43% Trend | - | - | - |
| GDP | $27.6B | $29.6B | $33.2B | $33.2B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $36.2B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $38.1B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $40.0B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $42.0B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $44.1B IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP Deflator | 7.29% | 4.13% | 8.79% | 8.79% Trend | 9.84% Trend | 10.89% Trend | - | - | - |
| GDP Growth | 1.99% | 2.97% | 2.40% | 2.40% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 2.70% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP PPP | $74.5B | $79.2B | $78.7B | $78.7B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $82.2B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $86.1B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $90.1B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $94.5B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $99.1B IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP per Capita | $8,663 | $9,359 | $9,648 | $9,648 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $10,546 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $11,115 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $11,710 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $12,335 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $12,994 IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP per Capita PPP | $23,376 | $25,043 | $22,830 | $22,830 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $23,930 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $25,134 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $26,385 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $27,742 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $29,204 IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GNI | $27.5B | $29.6B | $31.8B | $31.8B Trend | $34.1B Trend | $36.4B Trend | - | - | - |
| GNI per Capita | $8,280 | $8,790 | $9,553 | $9,553 Trend | $10,210 Trend | $10,867 Trend | - | - | - |
| Gross Savings | 20.80% | 21.08% | 24.87% | 24.87% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 24.70% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 24.64% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 24.61% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 24.60% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 24.59% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Industry Value Added | 23.72% | 22.43% | 22.74% | 22.74% Trend | 22.37% Trend | 21.99% Trend | - | - | - |
| Services Value Added | 55.91% | 56.56% | 56.85% | 56.85% Trend | 57.44% Trend | 58.03% Trend | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Prices & Inflation
Inflation Rate 4.00%
Consumer Price Index 140.25
PPP Conversion Factor 0.68
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index | 128.06 | 130.23 | 140.25 | 140.25 Trend | 147.76 Trend | 155.26 Trend | - | - | - |
| Inflation Rate | 6.11% | 1.69% | 4.00% | 4.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 2.56% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 2.04% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 1.98% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 2.05% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 2.03% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| PPP Conversion Factor | 0.67 | 0.68 | 0.68 | 0.68 Trend | 0.69 Trend | 0.70 Trend | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Population
Population 3.1M
Population Growth -0.36%
Population Density 60.3
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birth Rate | 7.7 | - | 7.2 | 7.2 Trend | 6.9 Trend | - | - |
| Death Rate | 13.5 | - | 14.7 | 14.7 Trend | 14.6 Trend | - | - |
| Dependency Ratio | 53.52 | 54.48 | 55.26 | 55.26 Trend | 56.10 Trend | 56.95 Trend | - |
| Fertility Rate | 1.49 | - | 1.46 | 1.46 Trend | 1.46 Trend | - | - |
| Life Expectancy | 77.9 | - | 77.2 | 77.2 Trend | 77.4 Trend | - | - |
| Net Migration | -485 | -4,497 | -6,994 | - | 2,454 Trend | 5,827 Trend | 9,200 Trend |
| Population | 3.2M | 3.2M | 3.1M | 3.1M Trend | 3.1M Trend | 3.1M Trend | - |
| Population Density | 62.2 | - | 60.3 | 60.3 Trend | 59.5 Trend | - | - |
| Population Growth | -0.62% | -0.66% | -0.36% | -0.36% Trend | -0.11% Trend | 0.14% Trend | - |
| Refugee Population | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Urban Population | 51.57% | 52.12% | 52.65% | 52.65% Trend | 53.19% Trend | 53.72% Trend | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Employment
Unemployment Rate 11.04%
Youth Unemployment 28.20%
Labor Force Participation 48.99%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture Employment | 17.57% | 17.12% | 16.71% | - | 16.22% Trend | 15.76% Trend | 15.30% Trend | - | - |
| Female Labor Participation | 39.53% | 39.40% | 39.24% | - | 40.18% Trend | 40.63% Trend | 41.08% Trend | - | - |
| Industry Employment | 30.63% | 30.64% | 30.60% | - | 30.62% Trend | 30.62% Trend | 30.62% Trend | - | - |
| Labor Force Participation | 49.43% | 49.24% | 48.99% | - | 49.73% Trend | 50.02% Trend | 50.32% Trend | - | - |
| Services Employment | 51.80% | 52.25% | 52.69% | - | 53.16% Trend | 53.62% Trend | 54.08% Trend | - | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 10.67% | 10.69% | 11.04% | 12.60% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.60% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.60% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.60% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.60% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 12.60% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Youth Unemployment | 27.27% | 27.33% | 28.20% | - | 24.18% Trend | 22.22% Trend | 20.26% Trend | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Government
Tax Revenue 20.18%
Government Spending 34.22%
Military Spending 0.69%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Deficit | -1.67% | -1.88% | -2.47% | -2.47% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -2.73% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -2.70% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -2.61% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -2.57% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -2.55% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Government Debt to GDP | 28.98% | 29.53% | 30.65% | 30.65% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 31.56% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 32.46% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 33.41% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 34.25% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 35.39% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Government Revenue | 40.04% | 41.44% | 42.09% | 42.09% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 41.89% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 41.88% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 41.83% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 41.84% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 41.84% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Government Spending | 35.30% | - | 34.22% | 34.22% Trend | 33.97% Trend | - | - | - | - |
| Health Spending | 8.92% | - | 8.77% | 8.77% Trend | 8.67% Trend | - | - | - | - |
| Military Spending | 0.72% | 0.75% | 0.69% | 0.69% Trend | 0.65% Trend | 0.62% Trend | - | - | - |
| Tax Revenue | 19.06% | 20.31% | 20.18% | 20.18% Trend | 20.49% Trend | 20.80% Trend | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Debt
External Debt $13.8B
External Debt to GNI 42.02%
Short-term Debt 22.20%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt Service | 13.53% | 10.84% | 12.17% | 12.17% Trend | 12.59% Trend | 13.00% Trend |
| Domestic Credit | 51.82% | 53.93% | 49.00% | 49.00% Trend | 47.00% Trend | 45.01% Trend |
| External Debt | $13.9B | $13.9B | $13.8B | $13.8B Trend | $13.8B Trend | $13.8B Trend |
| External Debt to GNI | 50.55% | 49.16% | 42.02% | 42.02% Trend | 37.12% Trend | 32.22% Trend |
| Interest Payments to Revenue | 2.01% | 2.38% | 2.33% | 2.33% Trend | 2.50% Trend | 2.66% Trend |
| Short-term Debt | 20.84% | 22.13% | 22.20% | 22.20% Trend | 22.84% Trend | 23.48% Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Money
Lending Rate 4.74%
Deposit Rate 1.63%
Real Interest Rate -3.79%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit to GDP | 47.34% | 48.27% | 43.51% | 43.51% Trend | 41.04% Trend | 38.57% Trend |
| Deposit Rate | 1.18% | 1.61% | 1.63% | 1.63% Trend | 1.85% Trend | 2.07% Trend |
| Lending Rate | 4.11% | 4.45% | 4.74% | 4.74% Trend | 5.11% Trend | 5.47% Trend |
| M2 Money Supply Growth | 7.67% | - | 6.50% | 6.50% Trend | 6.09% Trend | - |
| Non-Performing Loans | 3.82% | - | 2.02% | 2.02% Trend | 1.15% Trend | - |
| Real Interest Rate | -2.96% | 0.30% | -3.79% | -3.79% Trend | -4.45% Trend | -5.12% Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Currency
Exchange Rate 1.87
Real Effective Exchange Rate 108.46
Foreign Reserves $9.5B
▾
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.81 | 1.87 | - | 1.87 Trend | 1.90 Trend | 1.94 Trend | - | - |
| Foreign Reserves | $9.4B | $9.5B | - | $9.5B Trend | $9.6B Trend | $9.7B Trend | - | - |
| Real Effective Exchange Rate | 103.83 | 105.98 | 108.46 | - | - | 109.19 Trend | 110.58 Trend | 111.97 Trend |
| Reserves in Months of Imports | 6.5 | 5.0 | - | 5.0 Trend | 4.1 Trend | 3.2 Trend | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Trade
Exports $14.3B
Imports $18.4B
Trade Balance $-4.1B
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance | -2.14% | -3.47% | -3.85% | -3.85% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -3.90% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -3.90% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -3.87% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -3.89% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -3.87% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Exports | $12.1B | $12.1B | $14.3B | $14.3B Trend | $15.5B Trend | $16.7B Trend | - | - | - |
| FDI Inflows | 4.09% | 3.39% | 4.24% | 4.24% Trend | 4.52% Trend | 4.81% Trend | - | - | - |
| FDI Outflows | 0.42% | 0.40% | 0.39% | 0.39% Trend | 0.40% Trend | 0.40% Trend | - | - | - |
| Imports | $15.4B | $16.1B | $18.4B | $18.4B Trend | $20.0B Trend | $21.5B Trend | - | - | - |
| Remittances Received | $2.8B | $3.1B | $3.4B | $3.4B Trend | $3.7B Trend | $4.0B Trend | - | - | - |
| Tourism Receipts | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Trade Balance | $-3.2B | $-4.0B | $-4.1B | $-4.1B Trend | $-4.4B Trend | $-4.8B Trend | - | - | - |
| Trade Openness | 99.63% | 95.16% | 105.30% | 105.30% Trend | 108.12% Trend | 110.93% Trend | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Financial Markets
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rate Spread | 2.94% | 2.84% | 3.11% | 3.11% Trend | 3.25% Trend | 3.40% Trend |
| Listed Companies | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Market Capitalization | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Stock Turnover Ratio | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Political Stability
Political Stability -0.38
Government Effectiveness -1.18
Regulatory Quality -0.16
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control of Corruption | -0.68 | -0.58 | -0.61 | -0.61 Trend | -0.60 Trend |
| Government Effectiveness | -1.06 | -0.97 | -1.18 | -1.18 Trend | -1.23 Trend |
| Political Stability | -0.48 | -0.35 | -0.38 | -0.38 Trend | -0.37 Trend |
| Regulatory Quality | -0.16 | -0.14 | -0.16 | -0.16 Trend | -0.16 Trend |
| Rule of Law | -0.31 | -0.35 | -0.40 | -0.40 Trend | -0.42 Trend |
| Voice and Accountability | -0.32 | -0.32 | -0.37 | -0.37 Trend | -0.38 Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Health
Health Expenditure per Capita $866
Infant Mortality Rate 5.0
Maternal Mortality Ratio 10.80
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Expenditure per Capita | $667 | $773 | $866 | $866 Trend | $918 Trend |
| Hospital Beds | - | - | - | - | - |
| Infant Mortality Rate | 5.5 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.0 Trend | 4.9 Trend |
| Maternal Mortality Ratio | 12.00 | 6.00 | 10.80 | 10.80 Trend | 11.30 Trend |
| Physicians | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Education
Literacy Rate 96.99%
Tertiary Enrollment 45.12%
Education Spending 2.82%
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Spending | 2.97% | 3.25% | 2.82% | 2.82% Trend | 2.66% Trend |
| Literacy Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
| Primary Completion Rate | 100.88% | 100.52% | 101.73% | 101.73% Trend | 102.49% Trend |
| Primary Enrollment | 101.60% | 101.19% | 101.78% | 101.78% Trend | 101.97% Trend |
| Secondary Enrollment | 87.04% | 87.87% | 88.79% | 88.79% Trend | 89.40% Trend |
| Tertiary Enrollment | 45.61% | 45.50% | 45.12% | 45.12% Trend | 45.06% Trend |
| Youth Literacy Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Energy
Renewable Energy 36.60%
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO2 Emissions | - | - | - | - | - |
| CO2 per Capita | - | - | - | - | - |
| Electricity Access | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% Trend | 100.00% Trend |
| Energy Use per Capita | 2,271 | 2,171 | 2,262 | 2,262 Trend | 2,276 Trend |
| Forest Area | 42.73% | 42.73% | 42.73% | 42.73% Trend | 42.73% Trend |
| Renewable Energy | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Technology
Internet Users 89.49%
Mobile Subscriptions 123.45
R&D Spending 0.19%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-tech Exports | 4.97% | 6.16% | 6.08% | 6.08% Trend | 6.36% Trend | 6.63% Trend |
| Internet Users | 83.38% | 86.10% | 89.49% | 89.49% Trend | 92.83% Trend | 96.18% Trend |
| Mobile Subscriptions | 117.73 | - | 123.45 | 123.45 Trend | 125.81 Trend | - |
| Patent Applications | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| R&D Spending | 0.19% | - | 0.19% | 0.19% Trend | 0.19% Trend | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Inequality
Gini Index 33.0
Poverty Rate 0.20%
Income Share Top 10% 25.10%
▾
| Indicator | 2004 | 2007 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gini Index | 34.0 | 33.1 | 33.0 |
| Income Share Bottom 10% | 2.90% | 3.00% | 2.90% |
| Income Share Top 10% | 26.40% | 25.10% | 25.10% |
| Poverty Rate | 0.40% | 0.20% | 0.20% |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Data & analysis
Real GDP growth (%)
| 2023 | 1.99 |
| 2024 | 2.50 |
| 2025 | 2.80 |
| 2026 | 3.00 |
| 2027 | 3.00 |
| 2028 | 3.00 |
| 2029 | 3.00 |
| 2030 | 3.00 |
CPI inflation (%)
| 2023 | 6.10 |
| 2024 | 1.69 |
| 2025 | 2.23 |
| 2026 | 2.01 |
| 2027 | 2.00 |
| 2028 | 2.00 |
| 2029 | 1.98 |
| 2030 | 2.01 |
Unemployment rate (%)
| 2023 | 13.20 |
| 2024 | 13.20 |
| 2025 | 13.20 |
| 2026 | 13.20 |
| 2027 | 13.20 |
| 2028 | 13.20 |
| 2029 | 13.20 |
| 2030 | 13.20 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook via DBnomics
Bosnia and Herzegovina’s economic data reveals a transition from post-war volatility to a prolonged period of low-growth stabilization. The country’s historical rankings underscore its turbulent past: it held the #1 position for Non-Performing Loans in 2000, a legacy of the 1992–1995 conflict and banking sector collapse. By 2023, real GDP growth was a modest 1.99 percent, gradually rising to a projected 3.00 percent from 2026 through 2030. Inflation fell sharply from 6.10 percent in 2023 to 1.69 percent in 2024, indicating price stability after the global energy shock. Yet the unemployment rate remains frozen at 13.20 percent across the entire forecast horizon, signaling a structural labor market weakness that growth alone has not resolved. The macro story is one of recovery and stabilization, but not transformation. Without deeper institutional reform, foreign investment attraction, or labor market flexibility, Bosnia and Herzegovina is likely to remain locked in a steady but unremarkable 3 percent growth trajectory.