Home
→
São Tomé and Principe
São Tomé and Principe
HistorySaid - pattern
São Tomé and Principe matched the Stagflation Risk pattern in 2024. 24 pattern matches detected historically. View →
Economy & Growth
GDP $976.0M
GDP per Capita $4,061
GDP Growth 2.90%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture Value Added | 13.48% | 12.51% | 12.34% | 12.34% Trend | 11.84% Trend | 11.33% Trend | - | - | - |
| GDP | $690.5M | $822.2M | $976.0M | $976.0M IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.1B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.2B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.4B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.5B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.6B IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP Deflator | 23.75% | 17.70% | 24.97% | 24.97% Trend | 28.51% Trend | 32.05% Trend | - | - | - |
| GDP Growth | 0.37% | 1.10% | 2.90% | 2.90% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 4.70% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.90% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.50% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.50% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.50% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP PPP | $1.4B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $1.6B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.7B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.7B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.8B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $1.9B IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $2.0B IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP per Capita | $2,991 | $3,491 | $4,061 | $4,061 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $4,591 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $4,947 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $5,306 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $5,697 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $6,117 IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GDP per Capita PPP | $6,150 | $6,242 | $6,460 | $6,460 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $6,752 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $6,996 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $7,218 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $7,457 IMF WEO Oct 2025 | $7,715 IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| GNI | $697.2M | $821.5M | $872.9M | $872.9M Trend | $959.0M Trend | $1.0B Trend | - | - | - |
| GNI per Capita | $2,590 | $2,850 | $3,027 | $3,027 Trend | $3,228 Trend | $3,429 Trend | - | - | - |
| Gross Savings | 12.86% | 25.14% | 22.92% | 22.92% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 16.18% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 14.97% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 14.87% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 14.78% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 14.68% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Industry Value Added | 2.77% | 2.83% | 1.60% | 1.60% Trend | 0.73% Trend | -0.15% Trend | - | - | - |
| Services Value Added | 77.64% | 80.34% | 81.21% | 81.21% Trend | 82.48% Trend | 83.74% Trend | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Prices & Inflation
Inflation Rate 9.68%
Consumer Price Index 423.97
PPP Conversion Factor 13.10
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Price Index | 338.81 | 387.43 | 423.97 | 423.97 Trend | 467.87 Trend | 511.77 Trend | - | - | - |
| Inflation Rate | 21.26% | 14.35% | 9.68% | 9.68% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 6.95% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 5.55% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 5.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 5.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 5.00% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| PPP Conversion Factor | 11.10 | 12.76 | 13.10 | 13.10 Trend | 14.08 Trend | 15.06 Trend | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Population
Population 239,955
Population Growth 2.03%
Population Density 249.5
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birth Rate | 28.2 | - | 27.6 | 27.6 Trend | 27.3 Trend | - | - |
| Death Rate | 5.6 | - | 5.3 | 5.3 Trend | 5.2 Trend | - | - |
| Dependency Ratio | 72.85 | 71.61 | 69.84 | 69.84 Trend | 68.27 Trend | 66.71 Trend | - |
| Fertility Rate | 3.64 | - | 3.51 | 3.51 Trend | 3.44 Trend | - | - |
| Life Expectancy | 69.7 | - | 70.4 | 70.4 Trend | 70.9 Trend | - | - |
| Net Migration | -592 | -604 | -650 | - | -568 Trend | -543 Trend | -518 Trend |
| Population | 230,871 | 235,536 | 239,955 | 239,955 Trend | 244,466 Trend | 248,978 Trend | - |
| Population Density | 240.5 | - | 249.5 | 249.5 Trend | 254.1 Trend | - | - |
| Population Growth | 2.00% | 2.00% | 2.03% | 2.03% Trend | 2.05% Trend | 2.07% Trend | - |
| Refugee Population | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Urban Population | 68.60% | 68.87% | 69.04% | 69.04% Trend | 69.25% Trend | 69.46% Trend | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Employment
Unemployment Rate 9.13%
Youth Unemployment 8.79%
Labor Force Participation 23.34%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture Employment | 12.48% | 12.32% | 12.06% | 11.97% Trend | 11.82% Trend | 11.67% Trend |
| Female Labor Participation | 22.87% | 22.77% | 22.75% | 22.68% Trend | 22.62% Trend | 22.56% Trend |
| Industry Employment | 22.59% | 22.47% | 22.52% | 22.31% Trend | 22.20% Trend | 22.08% Trend |
| Labor Force Participation | 23.45% | 23.39% | 23.34% | 23.38% Trend | 23.38% Trend | 23.37% Trend |
| Services Employment | 64.93% | 65.21% | 65.42% | 65.72% Trend | 65.98% Trend | 66.25% Trend |
| Unemployment Rate | 9.03% | 9.06% | 9.13% | - | - | - |
| Youth Unemployment | 8.54% | 8.56% | 8.79% | 8.54% Trend | 8.49% Trend | 8.44% Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Government
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Deficit | -2.13% | 0.92% | 1.08% | 1.08% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 2.30% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.65% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.48% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.28% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 3.63% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Government Debt to GDP | 73.23% | 64.81% | 51.38% | 51.38% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 45.39% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 41.19% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 37.53% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 34.33% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 30.53% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Government Revenue | 21.79% | 25.61% | 27.20% | 27.20% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 21.73% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 22.15% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 22.06% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 21.65% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | 21.67% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Government Spending | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Health Spending | 5.77% | - | 6.06% | 6.06% Trend | 5.96% Trend | - | - | - | - |
| Military Spending | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tax Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Debt
External Debt $319.8M
External Debt to GNI 35.32%
Short-term Debt 0.08%
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt Service | 5.08% | 3.47% | 4.37% | 4.37% Trend | 4.19% Trend | 4.01% Trend |
| Domestic Credit | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| External Debt | $318.5M | $326.4M | $319.8M | $319.8M Trend | $321.7M Trend | $323.5M Trend |
| External Debt to GNI | 46.44% | 42.75% | 35.32% | 35.32% Trend | 29.16% Trend | 23.00% Trend |
| Interest Payments to Revenue | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Short-term Debt | 2.59% | 2.44% | 0.08% | 0.08% Trend | -1.32% Trend | -2.72% Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Money
Lending Rate 17.05%
Deposit Rate 1.64%
Real Interest Rate -7.11%
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Credit to GDP | 12.85% | 7.82% | 1.59% | 1.59% Trend | -2.05% Trend |
| Deposit Rate | 2.49% | 2.29% | 1.64% | 1.64% Trend | 1.38% Trend |
| Lending Rate | 17.90% | 17.81% | 17.05% | 17.05% Trend | 16.71% Trend |
| M2 Money Supply Growth | 9.04% | 5.99% | 10.02% | 10.02% Trend | 11.48% Trend |
| Non-Performing Loans | - | - | - | - | - |
| Real Interest Rate | 1.83% | -4.79% | -7.11% | -7.11% Trend | -10.17% Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Currency
Exchange Rate 23.43
Foreign Reserves $56.6M
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 22.66 | 22.64 | 23.43 | 23.43 Trend | 23.85 Trend | 24.27 Trend |
| Foreign Reserves | $46.2M | - | $56.6M | $56.6M Trend | $55.3M Trend | - |
| Real Effective Exchange Rate | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Reserves in Months of Imports | 2.6 | - | 2.4 | 2.4 Trend | 2.1 Trend | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Trade
Exports $135.7M
Imports $298.8M
▾
| Indicator | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current Account Balance | 3.03% | 5.05% | -3.26% | -3.26% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -3.57% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -3.94% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -4.04% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -3.99% IMF WEO Oct 2025 | -3.72% IMF WEO Oct 2025 |
| Exports | $100.1M | $117.6M | $135.7M | $135.7M Trend | $151.8M Trend | $167.9M Trend | - | - | - |
| FDI Inflows | -3.74% | -2.03% | -6.56% | -6.56% Trend | -10.46% Trend | -14.37% Trend | - | - | - |
| FDI Outflows | 0.52% | 0.47% | 0.57% | 0.57% Trend | 0.67% Trend | 0.78% Trend | - | - | - |
| Imports | $257.4M | $236.5M | $298.8M | $298.8M Trend | $319.7M Trend | $340.6M Trend | - | - | - |
| Remittances Received | $97.7M | $80.1M | $128.9M | $128.9M Trend | $151.9M Trend | $174.9M Trend | - | - | - |
| Tourism Receipts | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Trade Balance | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Trade Openness | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Financial Markets
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Rate Spread | 15.42% | 15.52% | 15.41% | 15.41% Trend | 15.33% Trend |
| Listed Companies | - | - | - | - | - |
| Market Capitalization | - | - | - | - | - |
| Stock Turnover Ratio | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Political Stability
Political Stability 0.44
Government Effectiveness -0.96
Regulatory Quality -0.89
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control of Corruption | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.49 Trend | 0.55 Trend |
| Government Effectiveness | -0.84 | -0.90 | -0.96 | -0.96 Trend | -1.00 Trend |
| Political Stability | 0.46 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 Trend | 0.42 Trend |
| Regulatory Quality | -0.89 | -0.94 | -0.89 | -0.89 Trend | -0.87 Trend |
| Rule of Law | -0.63 | -0.69 | -0.66 | -0.66 Trend | -0.66 Trend |
| Voice and Accountability | 0.28 | 0.25 | 0.19 | 0.19 Trend | 0.16 Trend |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Health
Health Expenditure per Capita $196
Infant Mortality Rate 8.4
Maternal Mortality Ratio 68.40
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health Expenditure per Capita | $139 | $171 | $196 | $196 Trend | $207 Trend |
| Hospital Beds | - | - | - | - | - |
| Infant Mortality Rate | 9.8 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 Trend | 7.9 Trend |
| Maternal Mortality Ratio | 82.00 | 75.00 | 68.40 | 68.40 Trend | 63.40 Trend |
| Physicians | 0.46 | - | 0.43 | 0.43 Trend | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Education
Literacy Rate 87.44%
Tertiary Enrollment 12.82%
Education Spending 4.58%
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Education Spending | 5.19% | 5.03% | 4.58% | 4.58% Trend | 4.39% Trend |
| Literacy Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
| Primary Completion Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
| Primary Enrollment | - | - | - | - | - |
| Secondary Enrollment | - | - | - | - | - |
| Tertiary Enrollment | - | - | - | - | - |
| Youth Literacy Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Energy
Renewable Energy 43.82%
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO2 Emissions | - | - | - | - | - |
| CO2 per Capita | - | - | - | - | - |
| Electricity Access | 78.00% | 81.30% | 83.38% | 83.38% Trend | 84.74% Trend |
| Energy Use per Capita | - | - | - | - | - |
| Forest Area | 52.77% | 52.13% | 50.83% | 50.83% Trend | 50.19% Trend |
| Renewable Energy | 42.50% | - | 43.82% | 43.82% Trend | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Technology
Internet Users 73.81%
Mobile Subscriptions 69.94
▾
| Indicator | 2022 | 2023 | 2025 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High-tech Exports | 5.29% | 29.27% | 21.83% | 21.83% Trend | 23.79% Trend |
| Internet Users | 61.55% | 61.46% | 73.81% | 73.81% Trend | 78.24% Trend |
| Mobile Subscriptions | 86.78 | 63.45 | 69.94 | 69.94 Trend | 67.76 Trend |
| Patent Applications | - | - | - | - | - |
| R&D Spending | - | - | - | - | - |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Inequality
Gini Index 40.7
Poverty Rate 13.00%
Income Share Top 10% 32.80%
▾
| Indicator | 2000 | 2010 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gini Index | 32.1 | 30.8 | 40.7 |
| Income Share Bottom 10% | 3.30% | 3.50% | 2.60% |
| Income Share Top 10% | 24.50% | 24.20% | 32.80% |
| Poverty Rate | 17.30% | 18.90% | 13.00% |
Italic values are IMF World Economic Outlook projections.
Data & analysis
Real GDP growth (%)
| 2023 | 0.40 |
| 2024 | 0.90 |
| 2025 | 3.13 |
| 2026 | 4.83 |
| 2027 | 4.06 |
| 2028 | 3.50 |
| 2029 | 3.50 |
| 2030 | 3.50 |
CPI inflation (%)
| 2023 | 21.18 |
| 2024 | 14.42 |
| 2025 | 9.60 |
| 2026 | 6.32 |
| 2027 | 5.00 |
| 2028 | 5.01 |
| 2029 | 5.03 |
| 2030 | 5.04 |
Unemployment rate (%)
| 2023 | 0.00 |
| 2024 | 0.00 |
| 2025 | 0.00 |
| 2026 | 0.00 |
| 2027 | 0.00 |
| 2028 | 0.00 |
| 2029 | 0.00 |
| 2030 | 0.00 |
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook via DBnomics
São Tomé and Principe, a lower-middle-income economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, is navigating a transition from acute instability toward gradual recovery. The IMF data reveals a sharp disinflation process: after peaking at 21.18 percent in 2023, inflation is projected to fall to 14.42 percent in 2024 and further to 9.60 percent in 2025, reflecting tightening monetary conditions. Meanwhile, real GDP growth, which languished at 0.40 percent in 2023, is expected to accelerate steadily, reaching 4.83 percent by 2026. This pattern suggests a macro story of stabilization following a period of high inflation and near-stagnation. Notably, the country holds the HistorySaid top global ranking for Industry Value Added in 2024, indicating a structural strength in its industrial sector despite broader headwinds. The trajectory hinges on sustaining disinflation without choking demand; a faster-than-expected easing of global commodity prices or a surge in tourism-linked investment could accelerate the recovery, while renewed fiscal pressures might delay the convergence to 5.00 percent inflation by 2027.